Each month, Trulia’s Housing Barometer charts how quickly the housing market is moving back to “normal.”  We summarize three key housing market indicators: construction starts (Census), existing home sales (NAR), and the delinquency-plus-foreclosure rate (LPS First Look). For each indicator, we compare this month’s data to (1) how bad the numbers got at their worst and (2) their pre-bubble “normal” levels.

In April 2013, construction starts tanked, while the delinquency + foreclosure rate improved sharply, and existing home sales rose slightly:

• Construction starts fell backwards to a five-month low. Starts were at an 853,000 seasonally adjusted annualized rate – down 16% from March to the lowest level since November 2012. The volatile multifamily sector led the decline, dropping 38% month-over-month. But building permits – a leading indicator of future starts – jumped 14% from March, so starts should bounce back soon. For now, construction starts are just 37% of the way back to normal.

• Existing home sales rose – especially conventional sales. Sales rose 0.6% in April to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.97 million – that’s up 9.7% year-over-year. Excluding foreclosures and short sales, conventional home sales were up 25% year-over-year in April. Further good news: inventory rose even on a seasonally adjusted basis for the third month in a row. Inventory rose 1.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, and 12% without seasonal adjustment. Overall, existing home sales are 69% back to normal.

• The delinquency + foreclosure rate fell sharply. The share of mortgages in delinquency or foreclosure dropped to 9.38% in April, the lowest level since September 2008. As the economy recovers, fewer people are falling behind on their mortgage payments. Also, more homes are moving through the foreclosure process, though at different speeds depending on state foreclosure laws. For the first time since the crash, the combined delinquency + foreclosure rate is more than halfway back to normal, at 55%.

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Each month, Trulia’s Housing Barometer charts how quickly the housing market is moving back to “normal.”  We summarize three key housing market indicators: construction starts (Census), existing home sales (NAR), and the delinquency-plus-foreclosure rate (LPS First Look). For each indicator, we compare this month’s data to (1) how bad the numbers got at their worst and (2) their pre-bubble “normal” levels.

In March 2013, construction starts and the delinquency + foreclosure rate improved:

• Construction starts rocketed to a new post-bubble high. Starts were at a 1,036,000 seasonally adjusted annualized rate – up 7% month-over-month and 47% year-over-year – which is the highest level since June 2008. In March, 38% of new starts were in multi-unit buildings, compared with the typical level of 20%. Construction starts are now 55% of the way back to the normal level of 1.5 million from their low during the bust.

• Existing home sales went down a bit. Sales fell 0.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.92 million homes. That’s a 10% increase over one year ago. Excluding distressed sales, conventional home sales were up 23% year-over-year in March. Also, inventory rose even on a seasonally adjusted basis for the second month in a row. Overall, existing home sales are 66% back to normal.

• The delinquency + foreclosure rate dropped yet again. The share of mortgages in delinquency or foreclosure dropped to 9.96% in March, down from 10.18% in February and 10.98% in March 2012. The combined delinquency + foreclosure rate is 48% back to normal and at its lowest level since October 2008.

Each month, Trulia’s Housing Barometer charts how quickly the housing market is moving back to “normal.”  We summarize three key housing market indicators: construction starts (Census), existing home sales (NAR), and the delinquency-plus-foreclosure rate (LPS First Look). For each indicator, we compare this month’s data to (1) how bad the numbers got at their worst and (2) their pre-bubble “normal” levels.

In January 2013, construction starts slid, while home sales and the delinquency + foreclosure rate both improved slightly relative to December:

• Construction starts fell monthly, but were still up sharply year-over-year. Starts were at an 890,000 annualized rate, down 8.5% month-over-month but up 24% year-over-year. The month-over-month decline was relative to a December spike in multifamily housing starts, which tend to be volatile. January starts were at their second-highest level since July 2008, and single-family housing starts were at their highest level since that same month. Furthermore, residential construction employment was up 2.6% year-over-year in January – outpacing employment overall, which rose 1.5%. Construction starts are now 40% of the way back to normal.

• Existing home sales edged up. Sales rose slightly to 4.92 million in January from 4.90 million in December. Year-over-year, sales were up 9%. But the mix of sales is shifting from “distressed” sales — foreclosures and short sales — to “conventional” home sales. Excluding distressed sales, conventional home sales were up 29% year-over-year in January. Overall, existing home sales are 66% back to normal.

• The delinquency + foreclosure rate improved. After holding nearly steady for three months, the share of mortgages in delinquency or foreclosure fell in January to 10.44%, from 10.61% in December. The January rate is the lowest level since December 2008. The combined delinquency + foreclosure rate is 43% back to normal.

Each month, Trulia’s Housing Barometer charts how quickly the housing market is moving back to “normal.”  We summarize three key housing market indicators: construction starts (Census), existing home sales (NAR), and the delinquency-plus-foreclosure rate (LPS First Look). For each indicator, we compare this month’s data to (1) how bad the numbers got at their worst and (2) their pre-bubble “normal” levels.

In December 2012, construction starts jumped dramatically, while home sales and the delinquency + foreclosure rate remained near their strong November levels:

• Construction starts leapt to a 54-month high in December. Starts were at a 954,000 annualized rate, up 12% month-over-month and up 37% year-over-year. That’s the highest level since June 2008. Looking at all of 2012, starts were up 28% compared with 2011, led by construction in Texas and the Carolinas and by a rebound in multi-unit building construction. Construction starts are now 47% of the way back to normal.
• Existing home sales slipped slightly in December. Sales dropped 1% to 4.94 million–still the second-highest level since November 2009. That puts sales 68% back to normal. Year-over-year, sales were up 13%. The better news is that “distressed” sales (foreclosures and short sales) represent a declining share of overall sales. Excluding distressed sales, “conventional” home sales were up 26% year-over-year in December.
• The delinquency + foreclosure rate held steady. In December, 10.61% of mortgages were delinquent or in foreclosure, down a hair from 10.63% in November. The combined delinquency + foreclosure rate is at its lowest level in four years and is 41% back to normal.

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